Monthly Archives: August 2013

30th August 2013 — AIM starts to move

At the start of July I asked “Has the tide turned for AIM resource stocks?

Eight weeks later and this looks like it is going to be one of my better calls. As always, I prefer to look at the general conditions to help guide my stock picking. We can often fool ourselves that success is based upon our prophetic talents at divining the fortunes of individual companies, but often the reality is far simpler than that. All we need do is plonk our speculative little investment boats in the water when it is low and wait for the tide to rise, hoping that our choices don’t suddenly spring leaks!

For most of the summer, I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that the AIM resource sector appeared to be going through a final phase of capitulation. The previous 18 months had been a horrific experience for anyone with money in this market. General pessimism was reaching a peak and there were some desperate corporate actions, as companies struggled to survive. Many stocks were being priced to fail and there were several examples of companies trading at a decent discount to cash, a sure sign of fear. Even some of my perma-bull friends seemed about ready to throw in the towel and I have to admit, I came pretty close myself.

 

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27th August 2013 — Buying BP

I’m hard pressed to think of a company, which has attracted more negative headlines over the last few years than BP. Admittedly much of this is deserved after the woeful operational failings, which led to the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, but the recent coverage has been increasingly dramatic. And as such I smell an opportunity.

 

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22nd August 2013 — Taper, Taper, Taper

It’s all I seem to read about these days. The increasing sense of panic is palpable.  But rather than running around like the headless chickens (or should that read “talking heads”?!), let’s step back for a moment and ask ourselves what might the taper mean?

I’ve been pretty bearish on US stocks for most of the summer. My first short trade did pretty well, but my latest one couldn’t have gone much better. As of writing I have actually closed it, as the market looks primed for a mild relief rally.

 

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16th August 2013 — A gift of a chart on the Dow

Make no mistake; the following chart is an absolute gift as far as I am concerned.

If you’ve been following my narrative on US stocks in the last few months, you’ll know I’m bearish because I believe the outlook for American QE has fundamentally changed. Naturally, I have been seeking opportunities to go short. To be honest this hasn’t exactly been a genius play. If anything it’s been a bit too easy, but I’m never one to look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

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15th August 2013 — Has the tide turned for gold?

Regular readers of SpreadBet Magazine and our blog will know that we switched our stance on gold to bullish earlier in the summer. Fortuitously for us, this also coincided with the near term bottom in the market. Since the end of June, the precious metal has been in fairly solid recovery mode and is up just over 10% off the lows. In our Titan Precious Metals we have, as they say in the industry “had it off”.

 

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8th August 2013 — A developing opportunity in natural gas

It’s been a while since I wrote a piece using the MIDAS Method, but there is a developing opportunity in the natural gas market which is starting to look quite enticing. Below is the three year MIDAS chart for natural gas:-

As you will note, MIDAS primary support is 16 months old, the bull run starting on April 20th 2012. Since April 20th 2012, the spot price for natural gas has been on a fairly strong run. It doubled within a year, pulled back, and then went on to make new highs.

 

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6th August 2013 — The Hindenburg Omen reappears

Yesterday, the Hindenburg Omen fired for the second time in a week. This is also the second time this summer that the signal has made its presence repeatedly within a short period of time, and is very reflective of general investor jitteriness about the health of US stocks.

Six weeks ago I wrote that a concentration of Hindenburg Omen signals could have suggested a significant top was forming in US stocks. Soon after, the benchmark American indices fell about 7-8%, only to recover quickly and then go on to make new highs. The initial shorting opportunity proved decent enough, though a large slug of the profit was wiped out as my trailing limits were hit. Sure, a profit is a profit, but, as I have said repeatedly recently, my current goal is take full advantage of a larger market move.

 

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