It’s always nice being on the money and today I have been bang on it.
I wish I could claim some particular personal insight led me to position myself in the manner I did, ahead of the FOMC’s meeting, but the truth is I am standing on the shoulders of others. Once again, Jon Hilsenrath has been the Sage of the Federal Reserve. My only hope is that he manages to strike up as good a relationship with Janet Yellen as he has obviously had with Ben Bernanke.
This is by no means certain and we can’t really know what direction Yellen will take in leading the Fed until she takes over. Bernanke’s softly-softly consensus building approach, for all the criticism it has received, has meant we’ve had warning in advance of the FOMC’s decisions. Even September’s non-taper, which wrong-footed everyone (me included), was signalled in the days before by Hilsenrath.
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