Category Archives: Technical Analysis

6th December 2013 – MIDAS support for gold at $1,206/oz

So, this been quite a week for the precious metal.

To say the trade has been choppy would be quite an understatement. Four of the five trading days have seen 30-40 intraday moves. We’ve tested some of the lows set earlier in the summer and there is a feeling something significant is going on in this market at present. Earlier today, our proprietor, Richard Jennings, wrote another bullish call on gold, pointing to further evidence that a bottoming process is playing out. A cursory glance over the chart below, strongly suggests he could be right:

 

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12th November 2013 — Speculative buy: oil at $95.71

In August’s issue of SpreadBet Magazine I wrote that the Gold/Oil ratio suggested gold was due a rally and/or oil was due a pullback. Although I have remained bullish on gold throughout the summer, at the time I thought it more likely that there was a decent opportunity to short oil. And so there proved to be.

(As an aside if you haven’t added the Gold/Oil ratio to your watch list it probably is time you did…)

 

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26th September 2013 — GDX, an alternative leveraged gold play

The GDX (or Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF as it is rather long-windedly known!) has been causing a bit of a stir, here at Spreadbet HQ, over the last few months. This ETF bundles a collection of gold and silver associated stocks together in an effort to track the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM). It offers investors and spreadbetters a leveraged play on the price of gold and is tradeable on the larger spreadbetting websites.

Now I know I’m about to bang on again about yet another gold related story, but bear with me. This really is an exciting time for the precious metal and if our house line is right (buy, buy, buy!) then this could prove to be an exceptionally profitable trade. As with all these things, timing is everything and now looks like the time to be buying. Even if we are wrong, downside can be managed with fairly tight guaranteed stops, so the risk/reward is definitely on our side.

 

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23rd September 2013 — The MIDAS Touch

King Midas’ legendary ‘curse’ was that all he touched turned to gold. If only my trading fortunes were blessed with such ill (good) luck! Today, rather than a Midas touch, I find myself faced with a MIDAS test.

OK, I am sorry, enough of the terrible puns!

Immediately before the FOMC bottled making a decision (which in hindsight wasn’t much of a shock I suppose), I released this piece, which analysed the gold price in the context of the MIDAS method. So far this summer, MIDAS has made some fantastic calls in various commodity markets (copper, natural gas, silver and gold). During this time, experienced users of MIDAS will have been able to get in and out of these markets, as crucial levels of support and resistance were confirmed and failed.

 

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18th September 2013 — Gold; a test of faith

We’ve been quite categorical about our position on gold over the summer. We are bullish and believe the current pullback represents a buying opportunity.

It is true that many die-hard gold bugs loudly proclaimed their allegiance to the precious metal from the top, all the way to the bottom, losing fortunes in the process. While we hope we haven’t been afflicted by the same investment fanaticism, we are betting that the latest weakness is a precursor to the next move higher. It is possible that the recent drops have been exacerbated by taper-related speculation, but we are now at or are approaching several key areas of technical interest. As always, we let ourselves be guided by what the charts have to tell us.

 

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